In front of an audience of entrepreneurs at Babson College on November 19, Ron Bienvenu spoke of his experiences at building several successful software companies. He covered many topics from financing a new business to the skills needed to be a successful entrepreneur which includes toughness and creativity. The MBA students were especially interested in the process of pursuing and funding an idea. One key factor that Bienvenu cited was that it is crucial to have the right idea, at the right time.

In order to know when to pursue the right idea at the right time, Bienvenu applies the theory of Punctuated Equilibrium to technology cycles which is covered in his new book, The Fourth Shock. Without exploring the technical arcana surrounding the nuances of the neo-Darwinist evolutionary debate, the Theory of Punctuated Equilibrium generally holds that evolution rarely occurs and that long periods of stasis are occasionally interrupted by rapid, catastrophic change.  In periods of stasis, most mutations fail as the ecosystem and the species that make up the environment are in balance.  This is not to say that all evolution ceases, but the types of evolution tend to be gradual and within species rather than the radical creation of totally new species. However, every so often a fundamental shock to the environment occurs and all hell breaks loose as the ability to radically mutate becomes a huge advantage in an evolutionary sense of the word.  In these periods of punctuation, evolution tends to explode as incumbents in the old environment are replaced by new species better adapted to the now changed environment.

 Mobility is next wave. It is bringing about the next period of intense evolution in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry. The new consumer data that mobile technology can offer is changing the way companies interact within themselves, with other companies and with consumers. The CPG supply chain, which has always been essentially reactive to consumer trends in nature, is becoming a proactive entity. The CPG companies that are able to adapt to these trends the fastest (a la the Theory of Punctuated Equilibrium) will be the ones to survive this next surge in the evolution of the industry. Those companies who stay too comfortable in stasis will find that their particular period of equilibrium is over, that the old environment is gone and that without the necessary adaptations this new evolutionary period the spiral begins toward extinction.